🇺🇸 Manchin Makes Moves
Plus, the official Wisconsin old fashioned.
Good morning, and happy Monday. A devoted Jack Russell terrier has become an unlikely mom to six abandoned kittens — and is even producing milk for them.
Plus, In Wisconsin, the old-fashioned cocktail comes with brandy, not bourbon. Now, state lawmakers are making it official.
Also, have you considered investing in private startups? An opportunity to get into this space closes in just two days.
Left: Media Must Communicate Risks of a Trump Victory Margaret Sullivan, The Guardian
Left: A High-Risk Legal Effort To Keep Trump Off the Ballot Sue Halpern, The New Yorker
Left: John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh Are Rigging the Supreme Court Docket Sarah Lipton-Lubet, Slate
Right: The Real Reason Republicans Aren't Winning Swing Voters Mark Penn, FOX News
Right: GOP Debates Reach a Dead End Byron York, Washington Examiner
Right: GOP: To Win Elections, Hold Mirror to Dems, Retain Our Values Michael Dorstewitz, Newsman
Another Hawaiian Wildfire, Shutdown Plan, Protests in Europe
US: There's another wildfire burning in Hawaii. This one is destroying irreplaceable rainforest on Oahu (ABC News)
US: Massive industrial fire shuts down LA freeway, Gov. Newsom declares state of emergency (New York Post)
US: Rep. Ilhan Omar faces repeat primary challenge from Democrat Don Samuels (Axios)
US: House GOP pursuing two-step plan to avert government shutdown (CNN)
World: More than 100,000 march in Paris against soaring antisemitism amid Israel-Hamas war (NPR)
World: Pro-Palestinian march draws hundreds of thousands in London to call for cease-fire (NPR)
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Manchin Makes Moves
Last Thursday, Moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said he would not seek reelection in 2024, boosting Republicans’ chances of taking his Senate seat. Without Manchin, Republicans stand a strong chance of picking up a Senate seat from Democrats, boosting their chances for a post-2024 majority.
Reporting from the Left: Joe Manchin won't seek reelection in 2024, dealing blow to Dems' Senate map (POLITICO)
Reporting from the Right: Manchin won't seek Senate reelection as he promises to 'fight to unite the middle' (Washington Examiner)
From The Flag: Manchin, 76, said he would be “traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.” The statement echoed his previous refusal to rule out a 2024 White House bid at a town hall hosted by No Labels, a movement that has floated a third-party ticket in the event of a Biden-Trump rematch. Here’s what both sides are saying.
This Could Be a Boon for Republicans
With Manchin stepping out of the Senate, he will be adding to Republicans greater opportunities to pick up seats in Congress.
It would be an unrealistic dream for Manchin to attempt to run for President in 2024 because the American people don’t want him.
“The West Virginia senator…is not some political mastermind. He's a greedy nihilist.”
Joe Manchin retires, making Democrats’ brutal 2024 Senate map even more brutal Andrew Prokop, Vox: “Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, so losing Manchin’s seat would put them back to 50-50 — still enough for control if President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris win reelection. The problem is that Democrats’ 2024 Senate challenges go far beyond West Virginia. They face such a starkly unfavorable map that, if things even go somewhat poorly for the party, they could fall into a deep Senate hole for years to come. Besides Manchin, two other Democratic senators represent states Donald Trump won in 2020, and they’re also up for reelection in 2024. Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) are both running again, but these are all very red states, and winning them in a presidential year will be quite difficult for Democrats. But the vulnerabilities go deeper. The only remotely close states (per presidential results) where Republicans are defending seats are Florida and Texas — two states where Democrats have had few victories in recent years.”
America Doesn’t Want Joe Manchin Rich Lowry, POLITICO: “Whatever else we can say about the nation at this time of chaos and division, it is not turning its lonely eyes to Sen. Joe Manchin. The West Virginia Democrat is considering an independent run for president, an idea whose time hasn’t come, and never will. … There is no doubt that the former governor, hailing from a red state where Democratic presidential candidates lose by 40 points, is a different kind of Democrat, especially on energy, cultural issues such as guns, abortion and immigration, and procedural matters like the filibuster and court-packing. Yet, he’s still recognizably a Democrat, who tends to be there for his party…. Add it all up, and this is not the voting record of a fiscal conservative, a fiscal moderate, or even a fiscal realist. … None of this is an auspicious launching pad for a national campaign. The typical fallacy of such third-party efforts is the belief that all, or a lion’s share, of self-identified independents, would vote for an independent candidate. This ignores the fact that many independents lean Democrat or Republican, and vote much like actual Democrats and Republicans.”
One more opinion piece from the Left: Joe Manchin Wants One Thing and It’s Disgusting Kate Aronoff, The New Republic
A Win for Republicans
This helps clear the way for Republicans to take the West Virginia senate seat, but some Democrats believe it’s not a guaranteed win.
Manchin dug his own grave by aligning himself with President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
While he has retired from the Senate, Manchin does not appear to be done with politics. His decision could dramatically change 2024.
Trump, GOP celebrate Manchin decision not to seek re-election, Democrats warn 'don't spike the football yet' Charles Creitz, FOX News: “West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's decision not to seek re-election sent shockwaves through the political world, with Republicans crowing about the increased likelihood of flipping a key Senate seat in 2024, while some Democrats warned the GOP not to celebrate too early. … Former President Donald Trump summarily responded to Manchin's apparent retirement on his Truth Social platform, appearing to link his own endorsement of Gov. Jim Justice's Republican Senate bid as a reason for Manchin to bow out. Trump said Justice has a ‘commanding lead’ over Manchin, though the governor also faces a primary challenge from conservative Rep. Alex Mooney. However, some Democratic observers cited recent Republican losses in the off-year elections this week, saying the GOP has developed a habit of celebrating sure-things that turn out to be failures. … Manchin appears to be taking a similar tact to Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, who announced his retirement while bemoaning partisanship and the political tenor at the moment.”
Manchin gambled on Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and lost Zachary Faria, Washington Examiner: “Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has announced that he is not running for reelection in 2024. His decision is a direct result of both his failures and the failures of the Democratic Party. .. Manchin was the biggest loser in politics in 2022, jumping on board with President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, a climate bill that worsened inflation. He did that on the promise that his own permitting reform bill could move forward but gave his vote to Biden’s bill and gave up his leverage as his own bill was voted down. That climate bill caused Manchin’s approval numbers in West Virginia to crater. After narrowly surviving a tough reelection challenge in 2018, Manchin was likely going to lose next year. He had finally tanked his reputation among West Virginia voters, and the inevitable loss he was facing almost certainly played into his decision to forgo another reelection race. That is how Manchin’s failures determined his fate, but the Democratic Party’s failures may determine what Manchin does next.”
One more opinion piece from the Right: An election and debate overtaken by events Ben Domenech, The Spectator
A Not Insignificant Number Would Consider a Manchin-Huntsman Ticket
A poll from July found that 16% of registered voters would consider supporting a third-party ticket with Manchin as the presidential nominee and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman as his running mate.
To that end, the survey from Monmouth University also found that 44% of respondents would definitely not support the ticket (Bloomberg).
Do you believe Manchin intends to run for president?
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Lincoln Snubbed, Gen Alpha, Uniquely Madagascar
General George B. McClellan.
On This Day in 1861: President Abraham Lincoln paid a late-night visit to General George McClellan, whom Lincoln had recently named general in chief of the Union army. The general retired to his chambers before speaking with the president. This was the most famous example of McClellan’s cavalier disregard for the president’s authority.
Quanta Magazine: Why the Human Brain Perceives Small Numbers Better
Today I learned that 80% of animals found in Madagascar exist nowhere else on earth.
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